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January inflation numbers underline fact that the rate cycle has peaked: Gokran

15 Feb 2012 Evaluate

RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn has said that an easing in inflation in January indicates downward trend and underlines the fact that the rate cycle has peaked. Gokarn further stated that the headline inflation at 6.55% is in line with Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) expectations and so is the non-food manufacturing inflation, which stood at 6.49% in January. 

However, as per Gokran, there still remain issues that can cause concern like a jump in oil prices in the future and the possibility of food inflation going back into positive territory. The RBI has put a year-end target of headline inflation at 6%. Gokran has however refrained from commenting on the possibility of another CRR cut by the apex bank. Inflation for the month of January 2012 fell to 6.55%, as compared to 7.47% in December 2011. It has been lower than the generally expected number of 6.7% and has confirmed the downward movement of prices, fuelling hopes of further rate cuts by the RBI in the future.

The RBI had ushered in a series of 13 consecutive hikes over a 19-month period till December last year to tame the uncomfortably high inflation. This adversely affected growth in fixed capital formation and in turn GDP growth. Due to the recent fall in inflation numbers in December, the RBI cut the CRR by half a percent. Though it helped to ease liquidity, it continues to be beyond the comfort zone with banks drawing almost Rs 1 lakh crore through the overnight window. With continued easing of inflation in January, it is expected that the apex bank could ease liquidity further.

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