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  3. Brazil to ship more soybean meal to Southeast Asia

Brazil to ship more soybean meal to Southeast Asia

04 Jun 2015 Evaluate

Brazil and Argentina will probably ship more soybean meal to Southeast Asia, as sales plunge from India, the largest regional supplier, Rabobank International said. Exports from India are set to decline to 1.2 million tonnes (mt) in the year started October 1 and drop to negligible levels by 2020 as domestic demand surges and the harvest stagnates. That'll force countries to turn to Brazil, Argentina and the US for supplies. Pawan Kumar, director, Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory said.

Poultry is a leading form of meat protein in Southeast Asia and demand is increasing as incomes rise, driving consumption of livestock feed such as soybean meal. The region's imports more than doubled in a decade to 13.7 mt in 2013-2014 and will rise to about 20 mt by 2019-2020, Kumar said. Production growth in the region is constrained by a lack of additional land and water and “India's crop is not enough to cater to both domestic and export markets,” he said. Indonesia will probably buy 4.7 mt of soybean meal in 2015-2016 followed by Vietnam with 4.3 mt and Thailand with 3 mt, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Only the European Union imports more. Soybean meal futures on the Chicago Board of Trade plunged 40 % in the past year to $301.90 per 2,000 pounds. Prices fell to $296.30 on June 1, the lowest level since October. Shippers were offering the feed at $580 a ton at Kandla port in western India on June 2, the extractors association said.

India is losing customers because supplies are more expensive than global rates as a result of the crop's non- genetically modified status and lower supply. Exports from India are set to drop as much as 29 % to 1.5 mt in 2014-2015 from 2.1 mt a year earlier, the Soybean Processors Association of India said. That's the lowest since at least 1992-1993, group data show. The soybean harvest will probably total 10 mt to 12 mt annually over the next five years, yielding about 7 mt of feed, Kumar said and Domestic demand for the feed has expanded by 12 % a year in the past decade and may jump to 7 mt in 2019-2020, he added. 

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