Manufacturing activities are still not picking up pace, as the yearly SBI Composite Index, an indicator for manufacturing activity in the country, for June 2015 declined to 53.2 from 56.5 in May 2015, indicating moderate growth as against high growth in the previous month. The manufacturing sector growth declined in June both in terms of month-on-month as well as yearly basis amid declining exports and fall in corporate earnings. As per SBI research, the Monthly Index declined from 53.7 in May 2015 to 46.7 in June 2015.
The research has stated that the declining momentum in credit growth is likely to have started impacting and this is leading to decreasing momentum in IIP growth. An index value of less than 42 means large decline, while value of 42 to 46 means (moderate decline), 46 to 50 (low decline), 50 to 52 (low growth), 52 to 55 (moderate growth) and above 55 high growth.
The report noted that exports growth and SBI yearly index are correlated and with exports showing some month-on-month traction in May 2015, IIP numbers for May is likely to have kept on the positive momentum. However, on the flip side with June 2015, SBI Index reflecting a loss in m-o-m momentum it is likely that export growth may be weak going forward.
The corporate earnings too showed a disappointing trend, out of total sample of 3,961, 35.7 percent corporates are PAT (profit after tax) negative in FY15 compared with 30.7 percent in FY14 and mid-sized companies with turnover between Rs 100 crore and Rs 500 crore were the hardest hit (topline as well as bottomline), with a PAT de-growth of 84.8 percent.
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