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ADB retains Indian growth forecast, reduces developing Asian countries'

17 Jul 2015 Evaluate

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its supplement to the Asian Development Outlook  (ADO) 2015, has retained its India GDP growth projection for 2015-16 at 7.8 percent, but cautioned that delay in reforms relating to land acquisition and GST could hamper growth. ADB said that “In India, growth forecasts remain unchanged at 7.8 percent in fiscal year (2015-16) and 8.2 percent in 2016-17, supported by a healthy monsoon and new investments.” It further stated that, underlying indicators suggest that India is on track to achieve the ADO 2015 growth forecast of 7.8 percent in 2015-16.

ADB also said that the pace of GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 8.2 percent in 2016-17, driven by continued service sector growth and removal of procedural bottlenecks that have hampered investment flow. It said “A healthy monsoon extending to early July has seen summer crop sowing increase 57.6 percent over the last year and is expected to boost growth in agriculture. The number of new investment projects announced has continued to increase for the fourth consecutive quarter during the quarter ended June 2015, indicating brighter investment sentiment.”

It added that improvements in indirect tax collection in the first quarter of the current fiscal points to some recovery in manufacturing. The index of industrial production rose at an average rate of 3.2 percent in January-May 2015, double the 1.6 percent growth in the same period of 2014.

The international agency based in Manila, though has cut its 2015 growth forecast for developing Asia to 6.1% from 6.3%, amidst slower-than-expected economic activity in the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China. It added that ongoing softness in the major industrialized economies (US, Japan, Euro Area) will see a slowdown in East Asia as a whole, with growth now at 6.2% in 2015, down from 6.5% forecast earlier.

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