Local rating agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has said that Kharif production is likely to cross the FY15 level in FY16 if the rainfall pattern during the rest of the monsoon period remains similar to that seen during 1 June-15 July 2015, says India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). This is in view of this year’s higher sowing of kharif food grains, increased acreage under pulses and higher reservoir levels than in FY15.
The rating agency has said that Kharif food grains represent close to half (FY15: 49.6%) of the total food grain output in India and sowing of this crop was 63% higher by mid-July 2015 than in the corresponding period last year. Although this was because FY15 was a bad monsoon year, sowing is currently 8.72% higher than the normal kharif sowing area by mid-July. Higher sowing is mainly due to 13% more than long-period average rainfall in June 2015. Total kharif crop sowing area on 17 July was 56.33 million hectares compared with 34.63 million hectares in the corresponding period last year. For kharif oil seeds, the probability of higher production is also brightened due to a 44.7% increase in its acreage from normal acreage.
Ind-Ra further added that FY16 kharif food grain production outlook depends on the amount of rainfall in the second half of July and in the remaining two months of monsoon, as rainfall in the first half of July was well below normal. A bad monsoon during FY15 pulled down the kharif production to 124.60 million tonnes from 128.69 million tonnes in FY14.
Earlier, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh too had said that there has been a significant increase in area under pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals so far and we expect a record production of these crops. Singh said higher minimum support price and other measures taken under various programmes has encouraged farmers to bring more area under these crops.
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