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Tata Steel valuations factor in most optimistic scenario

Tata Steel Ltd. | Steel & Iron Products | Metals & Mining | BSE: 500470 | NSE: TATASTEEL

29 Mar 2010 Evaluate

Tata Steel Ltd’s shares are trading close to a 52-week high. Its market capitalization is just 5% lower than the peak in end-2007. But business fundamentals don’t seem to support this level of optimism. Steel production has risen at a rapid pace and could lead to oversupply. On the one hand, the cost of raw materials is expected to rise as a result of the higher production and, on the other, steel prices may not keep pace to recover the higher costs.

A look at prices in the spot market suggests that metal prices are poised for another surge in FY11. We expect iron ore and coking coal prices to increase by at least 40% to 50%, to hit a new 10-year high for iron ore and near second highest levels for coking coal in past 10 years.

In the past, cost increases were passed on to customers since steel demand was growing at a healthy pace. While global steel demand has picked up reasonably since mid-2009, some markets such as Europe remain weak. In such an environment, it may not be possible to pass on cost increases to customers. In the best case, Tata Steel Europe (Corus Group Plc) will be able to just recover the higher input cost; expectations of a meaningful improvement in profitability in FY11 are misplaced.

On the other hand, Tata Steel’s domestic operations are set for a jump in profit as a result of its backward integration. It has captive mines to meet all its iron ore needs and around two-thirds of its coking coal needs. A large part of the increase in steel prices next year will flow into its profit as a result. This will more than offset the likely pressure on Corus’ profitability, and company-wide profit should grow at a decent pace.

But the company’s valuations seem to be factoring in a much better outcome.

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Tata Steel Share Price

211.75 1.05 (0.50%)

17-Apr-2026 13:32 View Price Chart

Peers

Company Name	CMP
Tata Steel	211.75
JSW Steel	1234.00
SAIL	171.90
Jindal Stainless	786.75
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Tata Steel valuations factor in most optimistic scenario

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