Global rating agency, Moody’s in its latest report has said that though 7.5% GDP growth appears high, it is below India's potential. India’s true potential of GDP growth rate lies somewhere near 10%. The report though highlighted that green shoots are slowly emerging, but cautioned that the government's failure to deliver promised reforms is the major impediment and the political infighting is denting business confidence. It also warned that GDP growth is not likely to rise above 7.5% if the government continues to overpromise and not deliver.
Moody’s further pointed that key reforms like the land acquisition bill, flexible labour laws, and the goods and services tax have failed to pass parliament. These are unlikely to be delivered until later this year or even 2016. It added that land acquisition bill is a catalyst to investment and passing this bill will improve country’s business environment by speeding up the conversion of land for infrastructure use.
The rating agency in its report has also said that foreign firms are wary of investing in India, as lengthy delays in acquiring land tend to stall projects. If India wants to become a global economic powerhouses like china, reforms must be delivered promptly. These signs are not well for manufacturing.
Moody’s in its report has also expressed hopes that RBI will cut interest rates again this year and there could be two more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2015, as the rainfall deficit this season has not been as large as previously expected, which guides the RBI’s rate cycle.
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