A day after disappointing the street by maintaining status quo on policy rates, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has said the central bank will cut interest rate provided it feels confident that inflation will remain below 6 per cent even after the reduction. He said that “We will cut rate when we see that even after the rate cut, inflation will remain below 6 per cent.”
Rajan said that RBI’s expectation for retail inflation is around 6.1 per cent in January-March, 2016, but it should be actually below that. That is what we are looking for to see how much room we have. He said there is perception among people that inflation is rising because of increase in prices of milk and vegetables, which is “worrying”. RBI tracks CPI, or retail inflation, in deciding its monetary policy action.
The Governor raised a red flag on the sustained hardening of inflation minus the food and fuel elements. Nevertheless, he said that the Reserve Bank was reducing its average inflation projections by 0.2 per cent for the January 2016 to March 2016 period. The risks around the six per cent target were broadly balanced. On growth prospects, Rajan has said the current financial year is expected to end with a growth rate of 7.6%, which is a 'strong growth'.
The Reserve Bank has reduced policy rates by a total of 75 basis points in three tranches since January, though in its Third Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Review, 2015-16, the RBI has maintained a status quo. However, unlike the previous policy statements, the tone of the policy statement this time around was much more dovish as the Governor made it clear that the Reserve Bank was looking for an opportunity to cut rates further.
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