Post Session: Quick Review

17 Aug 2015 Evaluate

It was roller costar ride for the Indian markets on Monday, the benchmarks after a positive start, suddenly slumped into red in the very initial moments of the trade and found stiff resistance to move back into green throughout the day, though the markets showcased a partial recovery in the noon deals on the back of buying in banking shares but the mood remained dampened with the trade deficit rising to nearly eight-month high, India's exports contracted by 10.3 per cent in July to $23.13 billion, pushing the trade deficit to $12.81 billion. Traders’ sentiments apart from the concern of weak macro data were also weighed down by the report from the weather department that India's monsoon rainfall deficit had widened to 10% as a strengthening El Nino weather pattern trimmed rainfall. The rainfall is likely to remain subdued even this week over most parts of the country, raising concerns over output from summer-sown crops such as cotton, oilseeds, paddy and pulses.

On the global front, the Asian markets made a mixed closing and though the Chinese Shanghai Composite bounced back to end in green, other markets in the region remained concerned on speculation that Chinese authorities may dial back support measures implemented to stem the equity markets. The European markets though made a positive start after their biggest weekly drop in more than a month, as concern eased that China’s currency devaluation would hurt the region’s exporters. Meanwhile, the European Commission confirmed a deal to lend cash-strapped Athens up to 86 billion euros over three years.

Back home, the markets despite a valiant effort in the noon trade could not mange to break into green, with oil & gas, power, realty, capital goods and IT succumbing to selling pressure. Benchmarks after losing their crucial levels of 28000 (Sensex) and 8500 (Nifty) found hard to claim them back, selling though got arrested by the noon but volatility took its place and traders kept on booking profit at every higher levels. Traders even overlooked, Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi’s statement that the government will come out with a 'carefully thought-out response' to deal with the situation of devaluation of Chinese yuan hitting Indian exports. Sectorally though metals remained the top gainers, but PSU banking shares bucked the trend amid reports the government is soon likely to initiate the bank recapitalisation process to help public sector banks tide over the growing NPA menace and prop up loan growth. The global rating agency Crisil too has said that the seven-pronged PSU banks' revival plan 'Indradhanush' could help the lenders register higher growth rate than earlier estimated and effectively deal with the issue of NPAs. The government has said that it would infuse Rs 20,088 crore into 13 PSU banks within a month's time. There was some selling in bluechip stocks that restricted the recovery of the markets. The broader indices outperformed the major benchmarks and ended modestly higher

In scrip specific actions, Birla Corporation surged over 15% after the company announced that it will acquire two cement units from Lafarge India having a capacity of 5.15 million tonnes per annum for Rs 5,000 crore. Upon completion of this transaction, Birla Corporation will consolidate its position in the eastern India cement market, where the demand supply scenario and outlook continue to remain buoyant. Shares of Bank of Baroda too gained as much as 15 per cent, after the government named private bankers to lead Bank of Baroda, the first such appointments in a broad reform plan to shake up the country's banking system.

The BSE Sensex ended at 27858.98, down by 208.33 points or 0.74% after trading in a range of 27739.13 and 28095.97. There were 8 stocks on gainers side against 22 stocks on the losers side on the index. (Provisional)

The broader indices outperformed and ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.24%, while Small cap index ended higher by 0.21%. (Provisional)

The gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 1.51%, PSU up by 1.09%, Consumer Durables up by 1.08%, Bankex up by 0.24%, while Realty down by 1.52%, Capital Goods down by 1.08%, Oil & Gas down by 1.00%, Auto down by 0.61%, INFRA down by 0.54% were the losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel up by 4.26%, SBI up by 3.71%, GAIL India up by 1.88%, Coal India up by 0.82% and Wipro up by 0.56%. On the flip side, Cipla down by 5.12%, Hindalco down by 2.47%, ONGC down by 2.33%, Hero MotoCorp down by 2.22% and Vedanta down by 1.87% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, reflecting the sluggish global commodity prices, especially of petroleum products, rice, iron ore, oil meal and leather products, India's merchandise exports contracted for the eighth month running in July, registering a 10.3 per cent drop over last year. While exports came in at $23.1 billion, Imports too fell 10.3 per cent to $35.95 billion and the trade deficit widened to $12.8 billion in July from $10.8 billion in June. However, compared with July last year, when it was $ 14.27 billion, the deficit has narrowed. The trade deficit for April-July, 2015-16 was estimated at $45 billion compared with $47.5 billion in the period during April-July, 2014-15.

Exports during July, 2015 were valued at $23137.26 million, 10.30 per cent lower in Dollar terms than the level of $25792.68 million during July, 2014. In rupee term Exports were of Rs 147233.94 crore, 4.95 per cent lower in compared to Rs.154907.25 crore in the same period last year. Cumulative value of exports for the period April-July 2015-16 was US $ 89828.16 million  as against $105726.16 million, registering a negative growth of 15.04 per cent in Dollar terms and  in rupee term it stood at Rs 570549.18 crore compared to Rs 632793.07 crore, down by 9.84 per cent in the same period last year.

Imports during July, 2015 were valued at $35949.72 million in Dollar terms, lower by 10.28 per cent at $ 40068.01 million. In rupee term the Imports stood at Rs 228766.07 crore, lower by 4.94 per cent from Rs 240642.83 crore in July, 2014. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-July 2015-16 was $134866.28 million as against $ 153274.90 million, registering a negative growth of 12.01 per cent. In rupee terms inports valued at Rs 856596.37 crore compared to Rs 917413.18 crore, down by 6.63 per cent in the same period last year.

Oil imports during July, 2015 were valued at $9486.93 million, 34.91 per cent lower than oil imports valued at $14574.45 million in the corresponding period last year. Oil imports during April-July, 2015-16 were at $ 34144.90 million which was 37.91 per cent lower than the oil imports of $ 54991.04 million in the corresponding period last year.

Non-oil imports during July, 2015 stood at $26462.79 million, 3.80 per cent higher than non-oil imports of $25493.56 million in July, 2014. Non-oil imports during April-July, 2015-16 were valued at $ 100721.38 million, 2.48 per cent higher than the level of such imports valued at $ 98283.86 million in April-July, 2014-15.

India's exports were hurt because of a stronger currency and going further may suffer in the coming months too on account of the impact of devaluation of the Chinese currency and with global demand not showing any signs of a pickup.

The CNX Nifty ended at 8471.85, down by 46.70 points or 0.55% after trading in a range of 8428.05 and 8530.60. There were 16 stocks on gainers side against 34 stocks on the losers side on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were Bank Of Baroda up by 15.16%, Tata Steel up by 4.08%, SBI up by 4.00%, PNB up by 3.64% and GAIL India up by 2.33%. On the flip side, Cipla down by 5.06%, Zee Entertainment down by 2.79%, Hindalco down by 2.63%, Hero MotoCorp down by 2.38% and ONGC down by 2.37% were the top losers.(Provisional)

European Markets were showing mixed trend, France’s CAC gained 26.54 points or 0.54% to 4,983.01 and Germany’s DAX increased by 48.09 points or 0.44% to 11,033.23, on the other hand UK’s FTSE 100 declined by 1.52 points or 0.02% to 6,549.22.

The Asian markets closed mostly in red on Monday, while Jakarta Stock Exchange was closed on account of ‘Independence Day’ holiday. Beijing is stepping up curbs on property market speculation after prices surged in one area of the capital, raising concerns some bigger cities may also tighten home purchase rules. China’s year-long slump in the housing market has dragged on the economy but there are fears bubbles are forming in some big cities even as prices in smaller cities languish. South Korean President Park Geun-hye stated that the domestic economy was returning to a modest recovery path after the shocks of the deadly Middle East Respiratory Syndrome ( MERS), but expressed concerns about China’s devaluation of the yuan. Japan’s economy shrank at an annualized pace of 1.6 percent in the April-June period, contracting for the first time in three quarters on weak exports and consumer spending. The preliminary reading for gross domestic product compared with the median estimate of a 1.9 percent contraction. It followed a revised 4.5 percent expansion in the first quarter.

Asian Indices

Last Trade

Change in Points

Change in %

Shanghai Composite

3,993.67

28.33

0.71

Hang Seng

23,814.65

-176.38

-0.74

Jakarta Composite

-

-

-

KLSE Composite

1,572.54

-24.28

-1.52

Nikkei 225

20,620.26

100.81

0.49

Straits Times

3,067.35

-46.90

-1.51

KOSPI Composite

1,968.52

-14.94

-0.75

Taiwan Weighted

8,213.42

-92.22

-1.11


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