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  3. S&P retains India’s ratings at BBB- with a stable outlook

S&P retains India’s ratings at BBB- with a stable outlook

20 Oct 2015 Evaluate

Global rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P’s) don’t seems to be much convinced by the government’s argument that India deserves a stronger rating after efforts to keep historically high fiscal deficits in check and to improve economic fundamentals, as the rating agency has kept India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-minus' and a 'stable' outlook, saying factors such as its sound external position were offset by low income and weak public finances.

It said that “We are affirming our 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short- term sovereign credit ratings on India,' and added that the stable outlook balances India's sound external position and inclusive policymaking traditions against the vulnerabilities stemming from its low per capita income and weak public finances.

However, it added that upward pressure on the ratings could build if the government's reforms markedly improve its general government fiscal outturns and with them the level of net general government debt so that it falls below 60 percent of GDP. On the same time it also cautioned that downward pressure on the ratings could reemerge if growth disappoints (perhaps as a result of stalling of reforms), if, 'contrary to our expectations, the new monetary council is not effective in achieving its targets, or if the external liquidity position of the nation deteriorates more than we currently expect'.

The agency expects India's economy to grow 7.4 percent this year and average 'just under' 8 percent from 2015 to 2018, but sees ratings constrained by low per capita income, of $1,700 this year. 'BBB' is the lowest investment grade rating and stable outlook reduces risk of possible sovereign rating downgrade.

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