Ratings firm Standard and Poor (S&P), in its report, Asia - Pacific Sovereigns, has cautioned India over its growing fiscal deficit. It has warned that if measures are not taken to rein the burgeoning fiscal deficit and steps to boost growth, it could lead to a downgrading from the rating agency. Also any policy setbacks on monetary, financial, and economic fronts, which lower medium-term growth prospects, could also bring in a cut in the ratings.
Currently India's sovereign debt is rated at ' Investment grade' with a stable outlook. This has been because of the resilience shown by the economy during the global meltdown. The warning has come in at a time when the UPA Alliance has lost elections in 2 major states and is predicted to loose in 2 other states out of the 5 which are presently scheduled for elections. The defeat could tempt the government to announce populist policies in the coming budgets given that Assembly elections are due in 2014.
The government is already guilty of an expansionary fiscal policy and a high subsidy bill which has led to its expenditure being more focused on consumption rather than investment. The government has also overshot its borrowing for the year and the fiscal deficit has breached its target.
Consumption expenditure of the government increased by Rs 5,300 billion between 2004-05 and 2010-11, in comparison to an increase of Rs 1,800 billion in expenditure on capital formation. What is desired is that the government should spend more on capital formation so that growth can be boosted. If the Finance Minister in the upcoming budget on March 16, could establish his government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and economic growth, it could lead to a rise in the ratings from S&P.
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