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CARE lowers India’s GDP forecast to 7.5-7.6% in FY-16

20 Oct 2015 Evaluate

Ratings Agency, CARE Ratings in its report “Revised Prognosis for Indian Economy” has downgraded India's GDP forecast to 7.5-7.6% for the financial year 2015-16 from its earlier estimate of 7.8-8%. The cut in forecast takes into account global developments like China’s slowdown, Chinese Yuan devaluation, Fed impending rate hike, 16 percent deficient monsoon and low capital utilization.

The report stated that the global growth has lowered down and the initial anticipated growth is unlikely to materialize. In particular, China has slowed down and the prospects do not look too encouraging. China had devalued the Yuan which had an impact on various currencies, viz. the emerging and developing economy currencies, which also declined in harmony. 

Besides, the report also factors in downbeat agriculture production which is pegged around a low of 0.5-1% this year assuming a normal Rabi crop that may compensate for the slippage in kharif crop output. The first advance estimates for kharif crop indicate a shortfall in case of food grains and cotton besides sugarcane. Industry has shown signs of pickup with industrial production up by 4.1% in the first five months though a clearer picture will emerge in the second half. However, the report states that it is the government's disinvestment target that could pose to be major risk for its fiscal position. The government has a target of Rs 69,500 crore and till August it has achieved Rs 13,000 crore .

Care Ratings further states that even as ratings agencies continue to cut India's GDP forecast, the government is following the fiscal consolidation road map and maintain that India will grow in excess of 7.5% in FY16 on the back of positive macroeconomic indicators such as declining inflation, Indirect tax revenues which are showing a positive trend and CAD which is under control.


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