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India is less exposed to global risks in Baa-rated Sovereigns: Moody’s

23 Oct 2015 Evaluate

Moody's Investor Service’s latest report is likely to give some cheers to the government and other policy makers, as the international ratings agency has said that India is less exposed to global risks because of resilient economic growth and impact of positive policy reform momentum.

In its report ‘Baa-rated Sovereigns: Diverging Resilience to Developing Global Risks’, which focuses on five Baa-rated sovereigns-Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, India and Indonesia, it considers India less exposed to external shocks than the other sovereigns discussed. It further stated that the positive outlook on its Baa3 rating reflects our view that the relatively resilient growth and the policy reform momentum will slowly stabilize inflation, improve the regulatory environment, increase infrastructure investment and lower government debt ratios.

Making a special mention of India’s significant monetary tightening in 2013, coupled with some fiscal consolidation, which is “an example of effective macroeconomic management that restored macroeconomic stability, albeit at the expense of near-term growth” Moody’s said although India, South Africa and Brazil have weaker fiscal positions than Turkey and Indonesia, these governments are less reliant on foreign currency and non-resident funding (government external debt).

The rating agency also said that emerging market sovereigns have diverging shock-absorption capabilities to withstand the risks that will continue to impact global credit quality in 2015-16. Moody’s believes the main external risk facing emerging markets is the potential for a prolonged risk aversion, prompted by hopes of normalization of US monetary policy and possibility of a sharper-than-expected China slowdown.

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