RBI debates whether the prevailing inflation is the “new normal”

06 Jul 2011 Evaluate

The debate on the normal rate of Inflation for the Indian Economy has picked up heat as the Reserve Bank of India’s Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said the central bank is debating whether the prevailing inflation is the “new normal”.

'There is a public debate on whether the prevailing high inflation is the new normal figure for price rise.' said Gokarn. Headline inflation measured by wholesale price index (WPI) has been hovering around 9% from last few months. Earlier central bank had estimated an annual rate of inflation to moderate around 5.5% by the end of last fiscal year i.e. by March 2011; however, later the RBI was forced to revise upwards to a high 7% then 8% and at the end of the 2010-11 the RBI revised it at a much elevated level of 8.98 % or almost 9%, which was further revised upward in June to 9.68%.

Although, the central bank in its annual monetary policy announcement had made it clear that its focus would be to cool down inflation even at the cost of economic growth, and RBI had pegged the annual inflation target for current financial year at 6%. However, the central bank’s anti-inflationary stance has been criticized by many experts and economist, due to its negative effect on economy’s expansion.

Since March 2011, RBI has increased its policy rates for 10 times, increased cost of capital due to continues policy rate hike, had affected the investment pace in the economy, and affecting the overall growth scenario. During the previous quarter economy registered 7.8% GDP growth which was lowest in last four quarters, this slowdown in growth is viewed as the adverse impact of RBI’s monetary policy stance.

On the issue of change in the consumption patterns affecting food inflation, Gokarn said statistics has not yet proved empirically that there is a fundamental change in the food demand pattern, however, the structural break-ups in the data, such as on inflation, factory output numbers and jobs are posing challenges to this, he added whilst expressing concern over the accuracy of data.

The food inflation for week ended June 18, eased to 7.78% from two and half month high 9.13% of last week, however, this moderation in food inflation is viewed as temporary and expected to increase further in coming weeks.

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