Moody’s caution India about rising fiscal deficit

09 Mar 2012 Evaluate

As per Moody's Investors Service report - ‘India’s Fiscal Deficits: What past trends portend for the future,’ India's wide and persistent fiscal deficits could eventually compromise the country's macro-economic profile and that while the annual budget statement can set fiscal reform in motion, lasting fiscal relief will take persistent policy efforts over several years.

The new report published by Moody’s notes that while the Indian economy has tripled in size over the last decade, the government's budget deficit to GDP ratio has remained close to levels of 10 years ago, and is far higher than that of similarly rated countries. This has been because a large part of the tax revenue comes from the manufacturing side and the services sector, which forms the majority of GDP, is still relatively untapped. Also the dependence on corporates for tax collection makes the revenues more susceptible to GDP changes.

Though the proposal to tax large number of services in the upcoming budget is a step in the right direction, it will take some time before the service tax's contribution to government revenues is equivalent to the contribution of services to overall GDP.

Moreover, the addition of long-term claims on the government's limited resources via policy initiatives such as employment guarantees and the Food Security Act have added to its expenditures. Despite efforts to reduce fuel and fertilizer subsidies since 2010, the government's subsidy bill has risen due to exchange rate depreciation and global commodity price movements.

Such loose fiscal policy nourishes inflation, and persistent inflation, in turn, erodes the value of accumulated savings, raises capital costs, and discourages investment. Hence the benefits of growth and increased savings and investments can eventually be eroded by a weak fiscal policy. Considering the scenario, Moody has given India Baa3 rating.

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