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  3. IIP output turns healthy; up by 6.8% in January

IIP output turns healthy; up by 6.8% in January

12 Mar 2012 Evaluate

Quick estimates data released by the government of India has shown that Index of Industrial Production (IIP) surged by 6.8% in January 2012 as compared to the same month last year and a meagre 1.8% (provisional) in the month of December. The number is more in line with the HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) which estimated an expansion to 57.7 in January with new orders touching a 10-month high. It is however much higher than the widely expected number of 2.1% by economists.

The manufacturing and electricity sectors have expectedly grown by 8.5% and 3.2% respectively whereas mining has contracted by (-) 2.7%. Capital goods, an indicator of investment activity, has fallen by (-) 1.5% in January and Consumer durables also showed a decline of 6.8%, whereas consumer non durables showed a growth of whopping 42.1% and Basic commodities grew by 1.6%.

For the period April-January 2011-12, IIP has shown a growth of 4% over the corresponding period last year, whereas cumulative growth in Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity has been (-)2.6%, 4.4% and 8.8% respectively.

The IIP growth number for December has been revised to 2.5% from the estimated 1.8%.

As per the Chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), C Rangarajan, the IIP number is encouraging but the composition of it is worrisome as the upswing has mainly come from the rise in consumer non durables. The RBI has already cut the Cash Reserve Ratio by 75 basis points on 9 March which is expected to spur investment activity by infusing Rs 4,800 crore of liquidity in the economy.

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