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Bonds yields come off lows post better than expected January IIP data

12 Mar 2012 Evaluate

Pre IIP Data:

Bond yields edged lower on concerns that the central bank may not buy debt from open market counterbalanced the positive impact of Friday's surprise CRR cut. India has increased its borrowing plan twice this year as its fiscal position has been deteriorating, hurt by a slowdown of economic growth. Meanwhile, traders were awaiting the release of January months’ IIP data for further cues. The street expects that India's industrial production (IIP) is likely to have grown a median 2.1% in January from a year earlier, compared with 1.8% in the previous month.

On the global front, US government debt prices fell on Friday as news of steady job growth in February reinforced the notion the US economy is gaining traction, spurring investors to trim their low-yielding debt holdings and buy stocks and other growth-oriented assets. In mid-afternoon trading, benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were down 6/32 in price with a yield of 2.04 percent, up 3 basis points on the day and up nearly 6 basis points on the week.

Meanwhile, Oil fell on Monday for the first time in four sessions, with Brent slipping towards $125 as global demand concerns took center stage following weak Chinese exports, countering support from supply disruption worries in the Middle East and Africa and a brightening US economic outlook.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds were at 8.26% from its previous close of 8.28% on Friday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps fell to 7.43% from its previous close of 7.48% on Friday.

Post IIP data:

India's annual industrial output growth measured by index of industrial production (IIP) with an updated base of 2004-05, has surpassed all estimates to stage a sharp rebound to 6.8% pace in January 2012 to 187.9, as compared to 175.9 in the January, 2011. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2011-12 stands at 4% over 8.3% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds were trading unchanged from its previous close of 8.28% as surprisingly strong January factory output data reinforced views RBI will cut interest rates only in April.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were at 7.45% from its previous close of 7.48% on Friday.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 182-day and 91-day Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of  Rs 4,000 crore and Rs 8000 crore respectively. The auction will be conducted on March 14, 2012 using 'Multiple Price Auction' method. Five State Governments have announced the Auction of State Development Loans 2022 for Rs 2,610.00 crore on March 13, 2012.

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