SEBI Reg. Investment Advisor

Download App

MoneyWorks4Me

Mid-year economic analysis pegs GDP growth at 7-7.5%

21 Dec 2015 Evaluate

The mid-year economic analysis has came up with a somewhat soothing picture of the economy, highlighting that the Indian economy this fiscal was being powered by private consumption and government investment and that the economy was doing 'remarkably well. Though the mid-year economic analysis of 2015-16, has lowered the forecast for GDP growth to 7-7.5 per cent for the fiscal, against 8.1-8.5 per cent growth projected in February this year. Nominal GDP growth is likely to be 8.2 percent for FY2015-16 as a whole. This estimate implies that nominal growth in the second half will be greater than that in the first half based on the likelihood that the fourth quarter will not witness severe expenditure cuts unlike in previous years. CPI inflation is likely to be within the RBI’s target of about 6 percent. The latest GDP estimates suggest that real GDP in the first half of 2015-16 grew at 7.2 percent as compared to 7.5 percent in the first half of FY 2015. In contrast, nominal GDP growth declined substantially from 13.5 percent in H1 FY 2015 to 7.4 percent in H1 FY 2016.

The mid-year analysis has said that decline in nominal GDP growth relative to the budget assumption will pose a challenge for meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP. Slower-than-anticipated nominal GDP growth (8.2 percent versus budget estimate of 11.5) will itself raise the deficit target by 0.2 percent of GDP. However, it said that tax collections have been buoyant. That plus the additional revenue measures (the Swachh Bharat cess and recent increases in excise) will ensure that central government's target will be met.

Inflation has continued to moderate steadily. Consumer price inflation (measured by the CPI-NS) has declined from 5.4 percent in February 2015 to 5 percent in October 2015. The WPI has been in negative territory for 12 months since November 2014 and is at (-) 3.8 percent in October 2015. It further said that the outlook for inflation would of course depend on international prices and the state of domestic demand.

The analysis further stated that current account deficit has declined and is at comfortable levels (about 1.2 percent of GDP); foreign exchange reserves have risen to $ 352.1 billion as on December 4, 2015 which seem ample, measured against conventional norms; net FDI inflows have grown from $ 15.8 billion in H1 (April-September) 2014-15 to over $ 17 billion in H1 2015-16 which is noteworthy against the background of uncertainty in other capital inflows; and finally, the nominal value of the rupee, measured against a basket of currencies has been steady or even strengthened. Sustained capital inflows, particularly in the form of foreign direct investment and non-resident deposits, adequately financed CAD and led to an accretion to foreign exchange reserves.

It said that revival in the overall growth of the economy is reflected in the growth of index of industrial production (IIP) as well. The overall index of industrial production (IIP) has grown marginally faster in the first six months this year than the last; there is considerable variation in performance across sectors.

About MoneyWorks4Me

MoneyWorks4Me is a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser (IA) dedicated to helping investors build long-term wealth through transparent, research-driven, conflict-free guidance. Founded in 2008, we started our journey as a Research Analyst (RA), providing deep fundamental analysis, intrinsic value insights, and long-term investing frameworks for Indian equities. In 2017, we transitioned to a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, strengthening our commitment to acting as a fiduciary—always putting the investor’s interest first.

Our Vision

To become India’s most trusted, research-powered fiduciary advisory platform—where every investor, regardless of experience, can make calm, confident, and well-reasoned investment decisions.

What Makes MoneyWorks4Me Different

Our Approach: Ensuring compounding work its magic on client portfolio.

MoneyWorks4Me ensures this through:

×