Wheat production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is likely to fall below 90 million tons (mt) for the second year in a row in 2015-16 due to an unusually dry and warm winter.
Wheat output had declined to 88.95 mt in 2014-15 due to poor monsoon and unseasonal rains in February-March, as against a record 95.85 mt achieved in the previous year. Sowing of wheat, a major rabi (winter) crop, begins from October and harvest starts from April. Wheat sowing is lagging behind as there is higher temperature stress because of unusually dry and warm winter in the wake of two consecutive drought years. This will impact wheat production by at least 5%.
Area sown under wheat was trailing by 2 million hectare at 27.14 million hectare till December of the ongoing rabi season, as against 29.31 million hectare in the year-ago period. The 2 million hectare lag in wheat area means the production would be down by around 6 mt considering average yield of 2.9 tons per hectare achieved in the drought year 2014-15.