Bond yields edge lower post release of headline inflation numbers

14 Mar 2012 Evaluate

Pre Inflation Scenario:

Bond yields inched up on Wednesday as traders stayed light ahead of inflation data for February, a figure that would provide cues for Reserve Bank of India's mid-quarter monetary policy review the next day. The street estimates the headline inflation to pick up slightly in the month of February to 6.79 percent from January's 26-month low of 6.55 percent as higher global oil prices fed into import costs.

On the global front, Benchmark US Treasury yields hit their highest level this year on Tuesday after stronger retail sales, gains in equities and the Federal Reserve's acknowledgement of signs of strength in the economy eroded the safe-haven allure of US debt. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes traded 27/32 lower in price to yield 2.13 percent, which was the highest level since early December and up from 2.03 percent late Monday. Meanwhile, Brent crude dipped below $126 on Wednesday as expectations for a build in US crude inventories and a stronger dollar offset support from improving economic sentiment in the world's top oil consumer.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds were at 8.35%, up from Tuesday's close of 8.32%.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were at 7.52% from Tuesday’s close of 7.48%.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 91-day  and 182-day Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of  Rs 8,000 crore and  Rs 4000 crore respectively. The auction will be conducted on March 14, 2012 using 'Multiple Price Auction' method.

Post Inflation Scenario:

India's wholesale price index quickened in the month of February after showing signs of moderating in last few months, putting the Indian Reserve Bank in a tight corner, a day ahead of its mid quarter monetary policy review in which it is now likely to abstain from resorting to any liquidity easing measures.

According to the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, rose in the month of February to 6.95% as compared to 6.55% for the previous month and 9.54% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 5.95% compared to a buildup of 8.66% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The index for primary articles group rose by 0.9% to 201.5 from 199.7 for the previous month, the index for fuel and power group rose by 0.2% to 173.2 from 172.8 for the previous month while the index for manufactured products group rose by 0.4% to 141.7 from 141.2 for the previous month.

The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds were at 8.30%, down from Tuesday's close of 8.32%, with traders building up expectations of a policy rate cut as manufacturing inflation numbers were benign.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were at 7.49% from Tuesday’s close of 7.48%.

© 2026 The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved. MoneyWorks4Me ® is a registered trademark of The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.

×