Markets to make a positive start, initial trade to remain cautious on weak macro data

13 Jan 2016 Evaluate

The Indian markets continued their bearish trend and ended the last session with cut of over half a percent, amid global turmoil. Today, the start is likely to be in green on positive global cues. However there will be some cautiousness from the domestic front, as in a double whammy, the industrial production plunged to an over four-year low, contracting 3.2 percent in November, while retail inflation increased marginally to 5.61 percent in December, mainly on costlier vegetables and cereals. Meanwhile, Finance Ministry has attributed the decline in November industrial production to a four-year low to statistical reasons, particularly due to lesser number of working days due to Diwali and the impact of Chennai floods. Markets are likely to get some support with Paris-based think tank OECD stating that India is witnessing firming economic growth while most of the developed economies are seeing mixed trends. The assessment based on Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) stated that India's CLI inched up to 100.4 in November from 100.2 in October. The IT pack is likely to come under pressure, as India's largest IT services company, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), has put in a lacklustre performance in December quarter. The dollar revenue of the company dropped 0.3% to $4.15 billion, while net profit was flat sequentially at $926 million, impacted by deluge in Chennai.

The US stocks despite a choppy trade closed higher in last session, erasing previous session losses and sensed some relief following mounting investor concerns about declining oil prices and a China-led slowdown in global growth. Asian markets have made a good start tailing positive cues from the US markets. The rally is led by the Japanese markets, which surged around two percent, rising for the first time this year.

Back home, The carnage in Indian stock markets prolonged for yet another session as the benchmarks continued to sway to the tune of depressing global developments and deposed another over half percent on Tuesday. Worries about the Beijing's ability to manage financial markets coupled with deepening fears about a protracted slowdown in the world's No 2 economy continue to keep investors on edge after sharp losses over the past week. On the domestic front, sentiments got undermined on report that foreign investors sold shares worth Rs. 1,319.24 crore on January 11, 2016. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, plunged by over half a percent to settle above the crucial 7,500 support level while, Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index Sense deposed over hundred points and closed below the psychological 24,700 mark. Market participants also remained cautious ahead of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for November and CPI Inflation data to be released later in the day. However, losses remained capped with finance minister Arun Jaitley’s statement that India can move to a high-growth trajectory of 10 per cent over the next two years with higher spending on infrastructure and by creating and strengthening banks. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmarks got off to a positive start in the morning trade as investors were largely influenced by the supportive leads from Asian markets. However, the bourses failed to capitalize on the early momentum and slipped to lower levels in late morning session on expectation that consumer inflation probably edged up for the fifth straight month in December, driven by higher food prices, complicating the central bank’s task of steering monetary policy at a time of international deflation. The selling pressure accentuated in the mid afternoon trades as investors took to across the board risk aversion. Though the bourses recovered from the lows of the day but could not succeed in minimizing the huge losses by the end of trading session. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 143.01 points or 0.58% to 24682.03, while the CNX Nifty ended down by 53.55 points or 0.71% to 7,510.30.

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