Global rating agency Moody's has said that India's credit profile will be unaffected by a small slippage in fiscal deficit target as it expects the government to continue fiscal consolidation and target lower deficits every year despite headwinds from global slowdown.
The fiscal consolidation trend that has been underway for a few years now, Moody’s said “will continue despite headwinds from global growth”. Moody's Investors Service Associate MD (Sovereign Risk Group) Atsi Sheth further said that a rise in corporate profits and bounce back in government revenues hold key to India meeting 3.5 per cent fiscal deficit target in 2016-17. He said that “We see fiscal consolidation as a process, not an event determined on the day of the budget announcement. While we are not focused on a shift in the fiscal deficit target by a few basis points, we do anticipate that the government will target lower fiscal deficits every year than in the previous year.”
As per the fiscal consolidation path laid out by the government, deficit which was 4 per cent last fiscal is to be brought down to 3.9 per cent of GDP in current fiscal and further to 3.5 per cent in 2016-17.
Moody's Investors Service has said that a poll that Moody’s and its Indian affiliate, ICRA Limited, conducted in Mumbai in mid-January 2016 shows that market concerns over India's (Baa3 positive) economic exposure to external risks have risen over the past seven months.
Last year Moody’s upgraded India’s outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’, but retained the credit rating at ‘Baa3’, just a notch above the junk grade. Moody’s had said it would consider a rating upgrade after 12-18 months depending upon improvement in macroeconomic parameters.
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