The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, will announce the mid-quarter policy review today. The view of experts on whether he will announce a rate cut remains divided. While there is a section of economists that believes that the rate may not be possible given yesterday’s inflation numbers, others feel that the core inflation has actually shown a declining trend, giving the governor some window of a rate cut.
The governor himself has resisted increasing the interest rates for a long time now. He has also been critical of the government’s finances saying that a mere rate cut will not help growth if the fiscal deficit is not brought under control. Nonetheless he has signaled a change in the stance of RBI from controlling inflation to augmenting growth, by bringing down the CRR. This has raised hopes that the upcoming review may bring in a rate cut albeit by 50-75 basis points.
However, Subbarao on January 24 during the quarterly monetary policy review said, ‘based on the current inflation trajectory, including the fact there is considerable suppressed inflation, it is premature to begin reducing the policy rate.’
Currently, repo, the rate at which the RBI lends to banks, is at 8.5%; reverse repo, the interest it pays banks for deposits is a percentage point lower at 7.5%. The cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits to be kept with the RBI, after a 75 basis points cut last week is at 4.75%.
Inflation, which showed signs of easing early this year is climbing again primarily due to a rise in food articles. Crude oil, where India imports more than two-thirds of its need, has risen about 17% this year. If the rise is passed on to consumers then prices of products will rise across the board. If the government subsidies, it ends up borrowing more from the market, pressuring interest rates.
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