India's Manufacturing PMI surges to four-month high of 51.1 in January

01 Feb 2016 Evaluate

Bouncing back after contracting in December, India’s manufacturing sector growth rose to a four-month high in January driven by rising inflows of new business orders from domestic as well as export clients. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.1 in January from December’s 49.1. The PMI moved back above the 50 mark denoting expansion. A figure above 50 represents expansion while a reading below this level means contraction. Though the trends in the growth rates are relatively weak in comparison with the long-run series averages, January’s PMI data paints a brighter picture of the Indian economy.

According to the survey, following the contraction in December in the wake of Chennai floods, January saw India’s manufacturing sector rebound into expansion territory, as production and new orders recovered. The new export orders sub-index rose to 52.5 from 51.5, the highest reading in five months, which coupled with a similar increase in domestic orders suggest renewed demand for Indian goods both home and abroad.

Further the survey notified that the consumer goods sub- sector remained the principal growth engine at the start of the year, seeing substantial expansions of both output and new orders. In contrast, producers of investment goods saw output, while production volumes stagnated in the intermediate goods category. The trend in new export order inflows strengthened during January, amid reports from companies of improved sales demand. The levels of incoming new export business has now risen in each of the past 28 months. The survey noted that though there was mild job creation in the month, the increase in employment was insufficient to reduce the pressure on manufacturers' capacity. On inflation, the survey said price pressure remained on the upside in January, with input costs and output charges both rising during the month.

Moreover, the survey in its outlook indicated an unchanged repo rate at 6.75% by the Reserve Bank of India in its policy review on February 2 even though the central bank is likely to continue its monetary policy loosening cycle in 2016.

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