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Indian households expect inflation at over 10% in the year ahead: RBI survey

05 Feb 2016 Evaluate

Something which can disturb the government and Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) assumptions and calculations, the Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectation Survey of Households for December 2015 conducted by RBI has said that Indian households expect inflation at over 10 percent in the year ahead, twice as much as RBI's retail inflation target of 5 percent by March 2017.

The survey providing an assessment of respondents’ perceptions on general economic conditions and own financial situation during the current period and a year ahead stated that Indian households expect inflation at 10.5 percent in the next one year and 10.3 percent each for current and next three months. In terms of qualitative response, the proportion of respondents expecting price rise by ‘more than current rate’ for prices in general as well as prices in all product groups (except cost of services) decreased marginally, while in terms of quantitative responses, common respondents’ expect similar level of inflation as their current inflation perceptions, for three-month ahead period based on their own consumption and buying experiences.

The survey shows that self-employed, retired persons and daily workers have comparatively higher inflation expectations for three month ahead period based on median inflation rates. The survey covered inflation expectations of 4,828 urban households' individual consumption basket across 16 cities and among them a majority of the respondents -- 90 percent -- expect prices to increase over the next three months and a year ahead.

The separate latest Consumer Confidence Survey said that current Situation Index (CSI) remained unchanged at its level as in the last quarter (September 2015). Future Expectations Index (FEI) increased fractionally on account of increase in positive perceptions on economic conditions, income and employment in the current round of survey as compared to September 2015 round. Though, the optimism regarding increase in future income (one-year ahead) is higher with net response improving by 2 percentage points as compared with September 2015 round of survey. However, the respondents reported increase in negative perceptions on spending during current period as compared to one-year ago and one-year ahead as compared to current situation. Employment outlook for one-year ahead as well as current scenario as compared to previous year, improved in this round, also the current sentiments on price levels as compared to one-year ago showed a marginal improvement.

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Indian households expect inflation at over 10% in the year ahead: RBI survey

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Name of the IA registered with SEBI:	The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.
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Trade/Brand Name of IA:	MoneyWorks4Me Investment Advisers
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SEBI Registration Number:	INA000013323 Validity – May 16, 2019 – Perpetual
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