Pre Budget scenario:
Bond yields were treading water as trader’s preferred staying on the sidelines awaiting the annual budget for details on the government's 2012/13 borrowing and the fiscal deficit. Industry’s experts expect the government to go for a higher market borrowing of Rs 530000 crore in 2012/13 from Rs 510000 crore, this year. However, bond yields could pierce through the 8.40% level if the borrowings are higher than expected.
On the global front, US Treasury debt prices stabilized on Thursday after the worst selloff in four months, as investors considered whether the jump in yields now reflects an economic recovery that was gathering momentum. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes slipped 1/10 in price to yield 2.28 percent.
Meanwhile, Brent crude rebounded above $123 on Friday after a sharp sell off the previous session, as rising tensions between Iran and the West fuelled an oil rally that has forced Western leaders to prepare a release of their strategic oil reserves.
The yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds were steady at its previous close of 8.36%, with traders on the sidelines.
The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps edged lower at 7.56% from its previous close of 7.57%.
Post Budget scenario:
Bond yields and overnight indexed swap rates rose sharply after the federal government set its fiscal deficit target for 2012/13 at 5.1% of the gross domestic product in the annual budget on Friday.
Reacting to this, the yields on 10-year benchmark 8.79% - 2021 bonds edged higher at 8.42%, from previous close of 8.36%.
The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were at 7.61% from Thursday’s close of 7.56%.
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