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  3. IMF projects growth rate of 7.3 percent for the country this fiscal

IMF projects growth rate of 7.3 percent for the country this fiscal

03 Mar 2016 Evaluate

Praising the budget 2016 proposals, the multilateral lending agency the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a robust growth rate of 7.3 percent for the country this fiscal, picking up to 7.5 percent next year, supported by stronger domestic demand, and has said that the measures are aimed at increasing public infrastructure spending, rationalising subsidies, creating more flexible labour and product markets as well as enhancing financial inclusion.

Though, the agency's protections are lower than the government's estimate of 7.6 percent growth in 2015-16 and unchanged from its earlier projection at the same rate in January, but it said that India has a very good outlook at the present time. It added that India certainly benefited from low oil and energy prices, one of the worlds largest oil importers and that's raised the real income of all Indians. In its report IMF said that the economy is on a recovery path, helped by a large terms of trade gain (about 2.5 percent of GDP), positive policy actions and reduced external vulnerabilities.

However, it also raised concern and said that main internal risk to a country like India comes from a weak corporate and bank balance sheet. There has been a big increase in non-performing loans in the present time, due to the previous shortfall in investment. It also noted that global financial market volatility, a potential further deterioration in exports, and strains in bank and corporate balance sheets could weigh on India’s growth prospects. It added that high fiscal deficits and upside risks to inflation constrain the scope for countercyclical policies.

It also cautioned that though balance of economic risks has improved, they remain tilted to the downside. These included the impact of intensified volatility on global financial markets, including from surprise unexpected US monetary policy moves or China`s economic slowdown.


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