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  3. Fitch Ratings maintains India’s growth forecast at 7.5% for 2015-16

Fitch Ratings maintains India’s growth forecast at 7.5% for 2015-16

08 Mar 2016 Evaluate

International rating agency Fitch Ratings has maintained India’s growth forecast at 7.5 percent for the financial year 2015-16, but added the economy would gradually accelerate to 7.7 percent in 2016-17, which is 0.3 per cent lower than its December forecast of 8 per cent, but much in line with the government’s projection. The agency had earlier affirmed India's BBB- rating with a stable outlook and stated that India would continue to post good growth rate.

In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), while it made widespread downward revisions to growth forecasts, it kept the Indian GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2016 at 7.5 per cent and said that the gradual implementation of the structural reform agenda is expected to contribute to higher growth, even though progress is lacking so far on big-ticket reforms such as the Land Acquisition Amendment Bill and the Goods and Services Tax.

The rating agency in its report noted that implementation of legislative reforms has so far been difficult given the government’s limited support in the Rajya Sabha, but executive reforms continue to be rolled out and added that the Budget for FY17 contained some further announcements of reforms, including measures related to the FDI regime, the financial sector and agriculture, illustrating that the government continues to gradually broaden its reform agenda. It also said that it expects another 0.25 per cent cut in monetary policy, as the government has decided to stick to the fiscal deficit roadmap for next fiscal.

As regards global growth, Fitch said on a weighted average of 20 of the largest advanced and emerging market countries, it forecast growth in advanced countries as a whole at 1.7% in 2016 down from 2.1% in December's edition of the GEO. For emerging markets, 2016 growth is now pegged at 4.0%, down from 4.4% in December. It said that though there are widespread cuts in GDP forecasts, but it’s not global recession in 2016.

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