India’s April-Feb fiscal deficit exceeds revised estimate

01 Apr 2016 Evaluate

India’s fiscal deficit for first 11 months of the financial year 2015-16 has surpassed the Revised Estimates (RE) of the 2015-16 Union Budget by seven per cent. According to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts, India’ s fiscal deficit for April- February 2015-16 stood at Rs 5.72 lakh crore or 107.1 per cent of the Budget Estimates of Rs 5.35 lakh crore (Revised Estimates). This means the government must have ensured a fiscal surplus of Rs 40,000 crore in March to meet the financial year’s target. The deficit was 117.5 percent of the full-year target during the same period a year ago.

The total receipts for April-February period stood at Rs 9.8 lakh crore accounted for 78.6 per cent of the RE at Rs 12.5 lakh crore. This was closer to that in the corresponding period of last year, when these had constituted 87.2 per cent of RE. This was despite the government's tax receipts swelling to Rs 7.3 lakh crore till February, 77.7 per cent of the RE at Rs 9.5 lakh crore. At this time a year before, taxes were 71.7 per cent of RE. The non-tax revenue for April-February period was 2.11 lakh crore accounted for 81.7 per cent of BE. The non-debt capital receipt was at Rs 35,951 crore till February represented 81.3 per cent of the RE. However, this was also lower than the 96.5 per cent of RE realised till February of last year. The government has almost halved the target of non-debt capital receipts, mostly divestment proceeds, to Rs 44,217 crore in the RE against Rs 80,253 crore pegged in the BE.

The data further highlighted that the total expenditure touched 15.55 lakh crore during April-February. The plan expenditure of government during the period was Rs 3.97 lakh crore or 83.2 percent as against Rs 4.77 lakh crore of the full year revised estimate and non-Plan Expenditure was Rs 11.58 lakh crore or 88.6 percent as against Rs 13.08 lakh crore of the full year revised. Further, the revenue deficit was Rs 3.9 lakh crore or 114.4 per cent.

The government is likely collect a significant revenue, both tax and non-tax including disinvestment in PSUs, in March. It has collected as much as Rs 4,500 crore through buyback of shares by PSUs. Government has exceeded fiscal deficit target for the financial year 2015-16 at the end of February but the final numbers for 2015-16 will be known once the March data is released. While presenting the Budget on February 29, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had said that the government would stick to the fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP for 2015-16 ending March 31.

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