The Indian markets after a choppy trade ended with modest cuts in last session. Today the start of the crucial week is likely to be cautious but in green, tailing the gains in the regional peers. Traders will be closely eyeing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review slated to be announced tomorrow, which will determine the direction of the markets in the days ahead. Traders apart from the rate cut will be eyeing the statement of the RBI governor to gain insights into future rate cuts and liquidity. Meanwhile, there is some positive news that could cheer the markets, with the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) predicting mostly a normal and sometimes heavy rainfall across the country barring some parts. Traders will also be getting some encouragement with the report that after having revised upwards its target for indirect tax collections by 8.6 per cent for 2015-16, the government has crossed the revised estimate to collect Rs 7.09 lakh crore as per provisional estimates. Also, as per United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), India has now been ranked sixth among the world's 10 largest manufacturing countries. Traders will also be eyeing the manufacturing PMI data scheduled for release later in the day. There will be some buzz in the PSU stocks, as the government this month will invite proposals from public sector undertakings for allotment of 16 coal mines.
The US markets bounced back and surged in last session, recovering from their early weakness due to crude decline; lifting Dow to its best closing level in almost four months, following the release of the Labor Department's closely watched monthly jobs report. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start with traders in the region continuing to hope that the Federal Reserve will proceed cautiously on raising interest rates, despite some good economic data, though some of the important markets are closed for today.
Back home, Profit booking coupled with sluggish global cues and caution ahead of key macro-economic data, weighed on the Indian benchmark indices on the first trading session of the new fiscal year 2016-17. Sentiments got undermined after government exceeded fiscal deficit target for the current financial year at the end of February but the final numbers for 2015-16 will be known once the March data is released. Further, investors turned jittery over the report that indicates the new fiscal (FY17) is likely to remain challenging for corporate India, with them unlikely to take up new investments on weaker credit conditions than in 2015-16. The report also believes the aggregate EBITDA levels of corporates will grow only modestly during 2016-17, given the budgetary focus on consolidation of fiscal deficit. However, the downside risks for the frontline indices was capped by reports that Infrastructure sector growth bounced back to a 15-month high in February, raising hopes of a pickup in industrial activity after three months of negative growth. The Index of Eight Core Industries, widely called the core sector index, was up 5.7% in February compared with 2.9% in the previous month and was the highest since 8.5% recorded in November 2014. On the global front, Asian markets ended in red on Friday, while European equities hit a one-month low on the first trading day of the quarter. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark began the April month on a somber note, as investors remained largely influenced by the daunting sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. The key gauges made some attempts to claw back into the green zone in mid morning trades but profit booking at higher levels dragged the key indices to the lowest point in the session. However, late short covering in some blue-chip stocks ensured that local bourses go home with relatively small losses. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 72.22 points or 0.28% to 25269.64, while the CNX Nifty dropped 25.35 points or 0.33% to 7713.05.
