Moody’s give a negative credit outlook to India post Budget

20 Mar 2012 Evaluate

The global credit rating agency Moody’s has given a negative credit outlook to India after the recent Union Budget. As per the agency, the dependence on corporate tax revenue, vulnerability to commodity prices and volatile exchange rates weaken the government's credit profile. Moreover, the lack of specific policies to address these weaknesses in the Union Budget makes the outlook a 'credit negative'.

As per the rating agency no specific measures like subsidy cuts or an increase in fuel prices has been announced for the coming months. Also, no specific measures have been taken to increase government revenue.

An increase in the number of services falling under the gamut of service tax is expected to increase revenues but only to a limited extent as they contribute only 5% towards the total tax revenues. The already stalled economic reform process and an unstable global environment make the attainment of the 5.1% fiscal deficit target doubtful.

As per Moody’s, the government will have to depend upon a combination of improved GDP growth and corporate profitability along with lower global commodity prices as well as exchange rate stability to improve fiscal performance. Moody's currently has a credit rating of BAA3 on India with a stable outlook. 

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