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RBI projects retail inflation at 5%, implementation of 7th Pay Commission to put pressure

06 Apr 2016 Evaluate

After cutting the repo rate by 25 basis points, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected the retail inflation to decelerate modestly and remain around 5 per cent for the current fiscal with small inter-quarter variations. RBI in its first bi- monthly monetary policy report for 2016-17 has said “Assuming that the government implements the 7th Pay commission recommendations by the second quarter of 2016-17, CPI inflation could be, on average, 100-150 bps higher than the baseline in 2016-17 and its impact is expected to persist up to 24 months”.

RBI in its report said that the pay hike impact will also jack up food prices, adding that food prices could consequently increase, leading to inflation rising above the baseline by 80-100 bps in 2016-17, even assuming effective government policies relating to food stocks, procurement and minimum support prices. Furthermore, RBI said there are uncertainties surrounding this inflation path originating from recent unseasonal rains, the likely spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon, the low reservoir levels by historical averages, and the strength of the recent upturn in commodity prices, especially oil.

RBI also said there will be some offsetting downside pressures from tepid demand in the global economy, effective supply side measures by government keeping a check on food prices, and commendable commitment to fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, RBI in its report is expected to boost GDP by around 40 bps during the current fiscal.

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