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Expect inflation to moderate in coming months: Gokarn

21 Mar 2012 Evaluate

Initiatives taken in the budget to improve growth in agriculture sector combined with the slow pace of growth could help contain inflation, as per Deputy Governor of RBI, Subir Gokarn. As per Gokarn’s estimates, food prices are expected to ease in the coming months due to good monsoon.

Also initiatives announced by the Finance Minister in the budget to step up agricultural productivity would bring improvement in the growth of the sector, helping the food prices to soften. Moreover even though rising crude oil prices will exert inflationary pressures, the weakening in demand due to subdued growth in GDP is likely to keep the inflation numbers low.

Commenting on the new consumer price index (CPI), Gokarn stated that it is too early to make it a benchmark for policy formulation. However he believes that the index does show promise as the benchmark for inflation management. Gokarn also stated that full capital account convertibility would take place in the years to come.

The country has seen a recent surge in prices and the inflation even though increasing at a slower pace, is around the 7% mark, much higher than the RBI comfort level of 5-6%. With observations of inflation expecting to moderate coming from Subir Gokarn, someone who handles the monetary policy of the RBI, expectations of an interest rate cut have been strengthened.

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