The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the country will receive 'above normal' monsoon this year with a fair distribution of rainfall across major parts of country, easing fears over farm and economic growth after two consecutive years of drought and said that it will be a “good year”.
Releasing its first monsoon forecast for the season, IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore said that the monsoon seasonal rainfall will be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent. There is 94 percent probability that monsoon will be normal to excess this year. By and large, there will be fair distribution of monsoon across the country. Drought-hit Marathwada is also likely to receive good rainfall. However, North-East India and South-East India, particularly Tamil Nadu, may get slightly less than normal rainfall.
IMD has further predicted that the four monsoon months from June to September will have more than normal rainfall, which is likely to peak in the later half of the season. At the same time, it also issued a covert warning of floods, which could occur in case of an excess rainfall. The forecast, which comes after two straight years of drought - is likely to boost the farm sector, which has been weighed down by subdued agriculture output and falling farmers' income.
Anything less than 90 percent of the LPA is termed as a 'deficient' monsoon and 90-96 percent of the LPA is considered as 'below normal'. Monsoon is considered as 'normal' if the LPA is between 96-104 percent of the LPA. “Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as “excess”.