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  3. IMF retain India’s GDP forecast at 7.5% for FY17

IMF retain India’s GDP forecast at 7.5% for FY17

04 May 2016 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific has retained India’s growth forecast at 7.5 per cent for the financial year 2016-17, on back of private consumption even as weak exports and sluggish credit growth weigh on the economy. It added that the government's push to boost capital spending could help crowd in private sector investments, which will help broad-base the recovery.

In order to achieve faster and more inclusive growth, IMF has asked the government to cut down subsidies and added that steps in relaxing long-standing supply bottlenecks, especially in mining and power sectors, as well as further labour market reforms to increase labour market flexibility in the formal sector are crucial. The report has noted that policymakers should capitalise on the favourable economic momentum to speed up the structural reform implementation. It noted that the long-awaited goods and services tax should be implemented, as it would create a single national market, enhance economic efficiency, and boost GDP growth.

IMF pointed to lower commodity prices, a range of supply side measures and a relatively tight monetary stance resulting in a faster-than-expected fall in inflation in India, making room for nominal interest rate cuts.  Furthermore, the IMF in its report has said that an incipient recovery of private investment is expected to help broaden the recovery. It said that India remains on a strong recovery path, with GDP growth reaching 7.3 per cent in 2015.

On the growth in Asia and the Pacific, IMF expects the growth to remain strong at 5.3 per cent this year and next. China's growth is forecast to moderate from 6.9 per cent in 2015 to 6.5 per cent this year and 6.2 per cent in 2017, while Japan's growth is expected to continue at 0.5 per cent in 2016, before dropping to -0.1 per cent in the next year.

 

 

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