With crude oil prices touching $125 per barrel, the Finance Minister has stated that the government may have to take certain tough decisions in the coming months. The comments are being seen as a signal from the FM towards hiking of fuel prices including diesel and LPG.
Given the government’s large fiscal deficit of around 5.9% of GDP, it is widely expected that it may have to increase fuel prices to cut down its burden of subsidies. Oil prices have been rising consistently in the last year and the world could see a further shortage due to the sanctions imposed on Iran. In such a scenario it may be difficult for the government to contain the fiscal deficit unless fuel prices are hiked.
The FM further clarified his stand of not raising fuel prices in the budget by stating that there are other methods of going about policy changes and a mere announcement would have served no purpose if it could not be implemented on ground.
Mukherjee has also hinted at an interest rate cut by the RBI given the declining trend of inflation in the past 3 months. This, he expects will boost investor sentiments. The government had set an ambitious fiscal deficit target of 4.6% of GDP for the current fiscal. However the FM, in the budget, stated that it would actually be around 5.9%.
A target of 5.1% has been set for the FY ’13 which has been termed as pragmatic yet ambitious by economists if the food security bill is implemented and crude oil prices continue rising. Hence slashing subsidies would probably be the only option left for the government.
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