Increase in duty to raise inflation by 25 to 50 basis points

26 Mar 2012 Evaluate

The recent hike in excise duty and service tax is expected to raise inflation by 25 to 50 basis points. However, Chief Economic Adviser, Kaushik Basu is of the view that a hike in tax rates will actually help reduce inflation in the long run by bringing down the fiscal deficit.

The Finance Minister, in the budget had  hiked the excise duty and service tax rates from 10% to 12% given the improvement in the global economic scenario. He however did not go all the way and increased it to 14% levels as he felt that it could curb domestic demand which has been the driver of growth in India. The increase was also necessitated by the fact that the fiscal deficit had risen to 5.9%, much higher than the targeted 4.6% for the fiscal.

As per Basu, the tax hike could in fact help lower inflation levels in the long run by controlling the fiscal deficit. Inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), was 6.95% in February. It remained close to double-digit throughout 2011 before moderating to 8.3% in December. Average inflation for FY ’12 is expected to be around 8% and will be around 6.5% in the next.

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