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Credit growth unlikely to revive materially in near term: SBI

24 May 2016 Evaluate

State Bank of India (SBI) while releasing its Composite Index for the month of May, which mirrors the credit demand in the country and other data sets available in the public domain, has said that Credit growth in the country is unlikely to revive “materially” in near term as demand conditions are still acting as a laggard.

As per the report, the yearly SBI Composite Index for May this year declined to 51.6, mainly due to lower credit growth. Though, the monthly index, jumped to 50.3 in May from 46.5 in April mainly due to increase in commercial vehicle and consumer durables sales. SBI Composite Index for Apr'16 had increased to 52.2, a 5 month high compared to the last month of 49.5, while the Monthly Index had declined to 46.5, its 18 month low.

SBI in its report further noted that it is “too early and premature” to say about the credit growth picking up in the country and added that as the demand is still a laggard we are skeptical of credit growth picking up even as the banks are in the midst of balance sheet cleaning. It also said that the supposed correlation between balance sheet cleaning and credit growth picking up will only happen once the growth cycle picks up significantly.

Recently the Reserve Bank of India data too showed that loan growth of Indian banks fell to single digit after five months of double digit expansion, reflecting sluggish demand amid almost static factory output. Bank loans grew 9.2% year-on-year in the fortnight ending April 29, the slowest since December last year. The low factory output over a long stretch of time has slowed the demand for corporate credit which is believed to have slowed credit growth.

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