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SBI Composite Index declines to 51.6 in May 2016

24 May 2016 Evaluate

The SBI Composite Index, an indicator for tracking India's manufacturing activity in the country has declined in the month of May mainly due to lower credit growth. The yearly SBI composite index for May 2016 declined to 51.6 (low growth) compared to 52.2 (moderate growth) in April 2016. However, the Monthly Index jumped to 50.3 (Low Growth) in May’16 from 46.5 (Low Decline) in April' 16 due to factors such as increase in commercial vehicle and consumer durables sales.

The SBI report noted that it is 'too early and premature' to say about the credit growth picking up in the country. In financial year 2015-16, the credit off-take (YoY) has indeed shown some signs of improvement and was at 11.3% as on 18 Mar’16. However, as on April 29, this year, credit growth has again declined to 9.2 %.

Further, the report stated that the credit growth in the country is unlikely to revive 'materially' in near term as demand conditions are still acting as a laggard. The supposed correlation between balance sheet cleaning and credit growth picking up will only happen once the growth cycle picks up significantly.

The SBI Composite Index captures two components of the manufacturing cycle namely month-on-month and year-on-year growth on a scale of 0 to 100. An index value of 42 to 46 means (moderate decline), 46 to 50 (low decline), 50 to 52 (low growth), while 52 to 55 means (moderate growth) and above 55 high growth. The SBI Composite Index rivals the existing data point from Nikkei. It has been developed on the basis of banks internal loan portfolio, which mirrors the credit demand in the country and other data sets available in the public domain.


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