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Fitch Ratings expects India's real GDP growth to rise to 8 percent by 2018-19

27 May 2016 Evaluate

Global rating agency Fitch Ratings in its latest ‘Global Economic outlook’ has said that it expects India's real GDP growth to rise to 8 percent by 2018-19, from 7.9 percent in 2017-18 and 7.7 percent in 2016-17, on broadening reform agendas and government resolve to implement them, as gradual implementation of structural reforms will contribute to higher growth. Though, it also pointed that reforms related to land acquisition and a Goods and Services Tax have not passed thus far.

Fitch said that gradual implementation of the structural reform agenda, which continues to broaden, is expected to contribute to higher growth. Passing of the new Bankruptcy Code in both houses of Parliament in May 2016 shows that implementation of big ticket reforms is possible in India.

The rating agency further highlighted that policy-rate cuts in India and Indonesia, for example, are likely to feed through to higher GDP growth. Monetary easing has been facilitated by external factors, as low oil prices have contained inflation and narrowed current account deficits

As regards global growth, Fitch said emerging market weakness and declining investment spending by global energy producers continue to take a heavy toll on world growth. Fitch forecast it at 2.5 percent in 2016, unchanged from 2015. It said that global growth should pick up to around 3 percent in 2017 as GDP stabilises in Russia and Brazil and the drag from energy adjustments starts to fade. It projected global growth to remain around 3 percent in 2018, with Fed rate hikes picking up pace. Though, it has revised the growth of China to 6.3 percent in 2016 and 2017 and said that there has been increasing evidence in recent months of previous policy stimulus gaining traction on activity.

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