Ahead of the release of the India's national income figures for fourth quarter, as well as for 2015-16, home grown rating agency, India Ratings and Research has said that the economic growth of the country is expected to be 7.5 percent in 2015-16, lower than advance estimate of 7.6 percent by the Central Statistics Office.
The agency said it expects the growth rate for last quarter of 2015-16 at 7.4 percent, which translates into the 2015-16 GDP growth of 7.5 percent. It also noted that any change in the fourth quarter of 2014-15 or the annual 2014-15 growth by the CSO, will have an impact on the quarterly and annual growth estimates.
As per the agency the growth in industrial GVA during the fourth quarter of 2015-16 is likely to have declined from the previous quarter level, however Ind-Ra estimates it to have been better than year-ago period. It also believes that the agricultural GVA growth can surprise positively, despite the second consecutive year of sub-par monsoons, mainly due to the unseasonal rainfall during the last quarter of 2014-15.
Earlier in the year, data released by the Central Statistics Office projected a growth of 7.6% in 2015-16 against the government’s more modest expectation of 7-7.5% growth. This despite growth decelerating to 7.3% in the quarter ended December from 7.7% in the previous quarter.
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