Food inflation surges to 8.31% for week ended July 2

14 Jul 2011 Evaluate

After showing signs of moderation for two weeks, India’s food inflation, measured by wholesale price index (WPI), increased to 8.31% for week ended July 2 from 7.61% in the previous week, reinforcing expectations for another round of rate hike by the Reserve Bank on July 27. The surge in food inflation is mainly due to increased prices of protein-based items, cereals and vegetables. However, non food items and fuel showed signs of moderation.  

According to the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for 'Food Articles' group, which account for 14.34% of WPI, rose by 0.5% to 191.7 (Provisional) from 190.8 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of fish-marine, bajra and gram (3% each), fish-inland, jowar and barley (2% each) and maize, rice, wheat and poultry chicken (1% each).  However, the prices of egg, masur, arhar, fruits and vegetables and moong (1% each) declined.
 
However, the index for 'Non-Food Articles' group, which account for 4.26% of WPI, declined by 2.1% to 175.8 (Provisional) from 179.6 (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of copra  and groundnut seed (6% each), raw rubber, fodder and raw cotton (4% each), soyabean (3%), raw silk (2%) and gingelly seed, mesta, linseed, flowers and rape and mustard seed (1% each).  However, the prices of raw jute (9%), coir fibre (7%), sunflower (3%), cotton seed and gaur seed (2% each) and castor seed (1%) moved up.

Therefore, the index for Primary Articles group, which account for 20.12% WPI, declined by 0.1% to 197.6 (Provisional) from 197.8 (Provisional) for the last week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 11.58% (Provisional) for the week ended July 2, as compared to 11.56% (Provisional) for the previous week June 25. 

Meanwhile, the Index for Fuel and Power group, which account for 14.91% of WPI, declined by 0.4% to 165.6 (Provisional) from 166.3 (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of light diesel oil (4%), aviation turbine fuel (3%) and naphtha, bitumen and furnace oil (2% each). The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 11.89% (Provisional) for the week ended July 2 as compared to 12.67% (Provisional) for the previous week June 25.

The increase in food inflation was expected due to increased fuel prices which is an important input for agriculture sector and for transportation of farm commodities. The food inflation is expected to stay above the comfort levels, due to unstable monsoon.  On the other hand, the Reserve Bank is widely expected to raise key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) in its policy review later this month, after three rate hikes this year, including a 25 bps raise in key policy rates on July 2.

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