Manufacturing slows down in March: PMI

02 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Manufacturing activity in India has declined marginally in the month of March as compared to February, as per the HSBC PMI numbers. The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - a headline index designed to measure the overall health of the manufacturing sector - registered 54.7 in March, down from February’s 56.6. It stood at 57.5 in January. Though the numbers have been above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, they are tad disappointing.

The rate of expansion has been the weakest in three months. This has been attributed to shortages in power supply and increasing prices of raw materials. Even though demand has improved, the manufacturers’ propensity to process new orders has been limited due to these shortages. As a result customers have also been hesitant in placing new demands. There has also been a marked increase in the backlog of work, in fact the fastest in the history of the series and an increase in delivery timing. 

On a more positive note, new export order growth gained momentum in March. Employment also went up marginally to accommodate the increase in output. On the inflation front, while inflation of output prices has eased, the prices of raw materials have increased. This suggests that inflation could pick up again as cost pressures are passed on to customers. Given these upside risks to inflation the RBI's easing cycle, in terms of timing and magnitude, depends on the extent to which these risks materialize.

The HSBC PMI number is closely followed as it is a fairly good indicator of the level of industrial activity in the country. In fact in the past these numbers have been more accurate than the government’s estimates. Even though the numbers have been declining for the third consecutive month, they are depicting a consolidating growth trend.

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