Rating agency India Ratings and Research in its latest report has said that the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) meant for revival of debt-ridden discoms will not have a destabilizing effect on fiscal consolidation at an aggregate level. It estimates that the aggregate fiscal deficit of states at 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 is expected to be marginally better than the 3.4 per cent in fiscal year 2016.
The report further suggested that at an aggregate level, the impact of UDAY is unlikely to pose a serious challenge to the fiscal consolidation paths of states. The aggregate impact of UDAY on the fiscal deficits of 13 states that have joined the scheme will be 0.47% of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY17 estimates India Ratings. However, it said that state finances of Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh will come under pressure due to the interest servicing of UDAY bonds.
As per the Ratings agency’s estimates, the states at the aggregate level are likely to miss the fiscal deficit target of 2.8% of GDP in FY17 by a wide margin, in spite of marginally better fiscal performance. Further, though the combined revenue account of the states are showing improvement over financial year 2016, will miss the budgetary target for the current fiscal year.
Furthermore, the agency believes that the capital expenditure of state and central government together can play a limited role in reviving the capex cycle. Besides, it also said that the impact of pay revision of state government employees in line with the recommendations of the Seventh Central Pay Commission will be felt only in 2017-18. The five states those have not yet joined the UDAY scheme despite incurring high distribution losses include Telangana, Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
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