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Brexit will have its impact but CAD likely to dip below 1 per cent in FY17: Subramanian

30 Jun 2016 Evaluate

In the aftermath of Britain’s decision to exit European Union, the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian has reiterated that the Current Account Deficit (CAD) the net difference between outflows and inflows of foreign currencies will possibly dip below 1 per cent in the financial year 2016-17, on the back of lower global oil prices, but said that the Brexit is expected to impact India as the global economy will slow down.

Subramanian said that the CAD will be very manageable and hopefully will be within 1 per cent of GDP. He added that “we had forecast growth rate of 7-7.5 per cent and I think broadly we are going to stick to that. As I said there is going to be Brexit and offsetting factors like good monsoons and at the moment we are not revising the forecast of GDP growth.”

CEA further said that the gold prices, which were on a record rise, might not have any impact on the overall CAD as the yellow metal imports account for only less than half of the oil import bill, resulting in a net positive affect. Elaborating further he said even if the oil prices decline, gold prices go up by similar amount and the net will be quite positive and the gold price effect should unwind itself as well, because there is always a broad correlation that when the dollar goes up commodity prices come down.

He said that from India's point of view it is significant in economic terms because one thing is the world economy might slow down as result of this which of course then impact India. Though Subramanian remained positive that the India is 'relatively well cushioned' to dwell any impact of the kind of external events.

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