Service PMI slows to 52.3 in March; rate of expansion eased for second straight month

04 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Indian services sector has slowed down notably in the month of March, as per the HSBC Services Business Activity Index. Growth of new business which had so far fuelled activity levels is also significantly down. It may be noted that this is the second consecutive month in which services have reported a slowdown. Similarly, posting 53.6, the HSBC India Composite Index - which covers both the manufacturing and service sectors - fell from February’s 57.8 to a four-month low.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC Services Business Activity Index posted 52.3 in March significantly down from 56.5 in February, the lowest in 5 months. Though the number remains above the 50 level, that divides growth from contraction, the rate of expansion is definitely coming down. In fact it is the lowest in the past five months. The dampening has been attributed to the lack luster budget which had no major economic reforms to boost growth.

Input prices have also gone up sharply for the services sector. It is expected that this could lead to a price rise in the coming months. As per Leif Eskesen, an economist at HSBC, since sequential inflation remains above the historical average, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to approach the rate easing cycle cautiously.

The RBI has kept the repo rate, at a three-year high of 8.5% since December to close down on inflation, but has cut banks' cash reserve requirements by 75 basis points to ease tight liquidity. Despite evidence that a slew of rate hikes since late 2010 is hurting growth in Asia's third-largest economy, the RBI has said that its hands are tied in the absence of credible fiscal consolidation.

On a more positive note, there has been a marginal increase in employment in the service sector. Also Indian service companies were optimistic that activity will rise over the next year. Expected gains in new business due to the high quality of services provided and anticipated improvements in markets conditions are expected to support growth.

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