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  3. Indian economy likely to grow at slow pace of 6.1% in 2012: E&Y

Indian economy likely to grow at slow pace of 6.1% in 2012: E&Y

09 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Indian economy is expected to grow at a slow pace of 6.1% in the calendar year 2012, as per Ernst & Young’s quarterly Rapid Growth Markets Forecast (RGMF). However, growth is expected to pick up by the second half if the global scenario improves. E&Y also believes that given India’s strong domestic demand and the macroeconomic resilience shown by it during the recent difficult times, will prompt a recovery in investments which could lead to the country achieving a 9% growth by 2014.

E&Y’s GDP estimates are much lesser than the government estimated number of around 7% for FY’13. It believes that though India has posted good numbers on the purchasing managers Index (PMI) and car sales data in January and February of 2012, have also hinted at a stronger growth, the country will have to address its inflation situation, before it can register a recovery.

In fact given the high rate of inflation, the RBI may not be in a position to cut interest rates which will impact growth. Also as the economy picks up momentum, it may be months before the core inflation takes a downward trajectory. The wholesale price inflation should trend down through 2012 to about 5% in Q4, reflecting the lagged impact of the weaker economy and lower food prices, the forecast said.

As per E&Y, India’s domestic demand-driven growth model is acting as a catalyst for attracting foreign investments into the country. Although the ongoing global uncertainty may have prompted global investors to become more cautious, India’s inherent advantages and proven resilience to counter-act macroeconomic challenges generally outweighs these concerns.

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