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Rising external debts leading to vulnerability of emerging economies: Moody’s

22 Jul 2016 Evaluate

Emerging market economies including India are becoming more vulnerable to global shocks with piling up of external debts. Moody's Investors Service in its latest report has said that India’s external debt as of 2015 at $474 billion has experienced the second largest rise since 2010 representing 16% of the Asia Pacific region's total debt. Besides, external debt to GDP ratio has moved up to 23% from 17% in 2005, although is still one of the lowest globally.

The report said that external debt for emerging economies has almost tripled in the last decade to $8,200 billion in 2015 from $3,000 billion in 2005 and over the last five years it has grown faster than GDP and foreign exchange reserves. As a result, the average emerging markets external debt to GDP ratio increased to 54% in 2015 from its decade-low of 40% in 2008. The average external debt to reserves ratio rose to 353% in 2015 from 251% in 2007.

Moody’s report further stated that Asia-Pacific regional debt has grown the strongest in the last decade, at an average rate of 13.5% a year. Asia-Pacific region’s increase in debt is of $1,400 billion over the last five years and represents almost 60% of the total increase in emerging market debt over that period. Whereas the average external debt to GDP ratio for Asia as a whole has recently rose to 47% in 2015 from 31% in 2008, this was however well below the 78% of emerging Europe, but comparable to the 48% in Latin America and the 43% in the Middle East and Africa region. While adding Moody’s said, the growth in debt was the highest in the Asia Pacific region, with the largest rise in external borrowing in China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. While China's external debt to GDP ratio is still the second-lowest globally at 13% of GDP in 2015.


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