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Manufacturing sector may witness moderate growth in Q4 FY12: FICCI Survey

09 Apr 2012 Evaluate

The Indian manufacturing sector is expected to grow moderately in the last quarter of FY’12 as per a survey undertaken by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). The sector, which had almost bottomed out in the 3rd quarter, expects a moderate revival based on higher orders on the books and a somewhat better export outlook.

The survey saw participation from 336 manufacturing units and associations and included 12 sectors. 36% of these expected the sector to show modest revival on the back of improved demand, in the last quarter of FY’12. About 44% of the participants said their capacity utilisation was higher in the last quarter as compared to the same period last year. 38% of the respondents planned to add capacity in the next six months, against 32% in the previous quarter.

However on the negative side, only 30% reported that they were planning to increase their workforce in the next three months. About 58% of the respondents said that rising cost of raw materials was the most important growth constraint. Surprisingly, only 34% felt rising cost of interest, given the RBI’s tight monetary policy is capping the growth. Seven, out of twelve sectors that were surveyed, were likely to witness low (less than 5%) growth and four sectors were expected to see strong growth (greater than 10%) in Q4. The sectors which are expected to do well are automotive, leather and tyres. The sectors that are likely to witness low growth are chemicals, cement, steel, textiles, paper and electronics.

Output of the manufacturing sector constitutes over 75% of the index of industrial production (IIP). The IIP rose by 6.8% in January, compared to 8.1% in the same month last year. The growth figures came in as a surprise as most were expecting a number close to 2.1%. The recent HSBC purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed that while the demand is robust, power cuts and input shortages are coming in the way of manufacturing growth in March 2011-12. The PMI stood at 54.7 points in March, versus 56.6 points in February. The January PMI stood at 57.5. Reading above 50 denotes growth, while below it is contraction.

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Manufacturing sector may witness moderate growth in Q4 FY12: FICCI Survey

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