Cotton production likely to fall in 2012-13 marketing year: USDA

09 Apr 2012 Evaluate

Cotton production in India is expected to take a dip in the 2012-13 marketing year (August-July) as farmers are likely to shift to more lucrative and hassle free crops. As per the report released by US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the area sown under cotton is expected to decrease by 10% leading to a fall in production by two million bales.

India is the second largest producer of cotton in the world. Cotton production stood at a record 34.25 million bales in the 2011-12 marketing year while consumption was at 25.3 million bales. In the coming year the production is likely to fall to 32.3 million bales whereas consumption is expected to go up to 26 million bales, leaving only 6 million bales for exports. The area sown is expected to drop to 10.9 million hectare, as against the record 12.2 million hectares in 2011-12.

The fall in production has been attributed to the low Minimum Support Price (MSP) offered by the government and the controversies surrounding the white fluff. Recently, the government had imposed a ban on the exports of cotton which was later partially withdrawn due to the severe criticism that came with it. It is still not clear whether the government will allow fresh cotton exports before the start of the 2012-13 marketing year or it will develop a new procedure for regulating exports.

Given the scenario, it is expected that the framers especially of the central, western and northern India, may shift to the more lucrative and less policy driven options of peanuts, soybeans, guar and maize. The USDA, however, has stated that these estimates are very preliminary as it is difficult to gauge farmers' planting intentions at this early stage. Nonetheless it has recommended that the government should hike the MSP to encourage the production of the fiber.

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